Tucson Kent's World: Kent Simpson 520.302.5368 Tucson Homes Land & Investment (Tierra Antigua Realty - Downtown)

HUD could be causing prices to tumble further as an unintended consequence of its attempts to be fair in assigning properties to listing agents in some communities. 

While a particular community may be geographically close to another city, that city may belong to an MLS system that doesn't really serve the market area that the community belongs to.  Case in point:  Red Rock, Arizona. 

Red Rock is a master-planned community north of Tucson by about 30 minutes.  It really is a bedroom community for the Tucson region.  Residents shop in Marana & Oro Valley in the NW sector of the Tucson Metro.  Nevertheless, there is about a 50/50 split with agents in Casa Grande (which belongs to ARMLS - really serving the greater Phoenix region for the most part), and agents belonging to the Tucson MLS (TARMLS).

From a geographic standpoint, it looks like a fair division of property allocations.  Casa Grande is about the same distance/drive time from Red Rock as Tucson is.  HOWEVER, by doing so, putting these properties into an MLS that really serves a different region causes these properties to languish on the market much longer.  People looking for properties in Red Rock generally see them through Tucson agents...so the homes listed in ARMLS usually go ignored or unnoticed.

We all know that longer time on market results in price reductions.  Appraisals use hard data to help determine value - a government agency directing properties to the wrong market isn't a mitigating factor...it just produces lower appraisals.  People don't see it (agents too), so they don't even know that a property is for sale!  Nothing wrong with the house, nor with the agent listing it - the languishment is simply because it isn't being seen!

I've noticed in the last several months that HUD listings of the same relative size are selling within 30-70 days (depending on condition) for a price in the $60-$75k range when listed by agents working in the Tucson MLS.  Properties listed by agents in Casa Grande have typically lasted 110 days or more before going under contract...and the prices are in the mid-$40's to mid-$50s & $60's.  All because they are handled in an MLS where Red Rock is on the extreme southern end...and not a viable commute for people working in the Phoenix region.  This is NOT because the Casa Grande agents are doing anything wrong - in fact, the ones that I have done business with are working harder to sell Red Rock homes at a lower price, and are relieved when someone finally shows one!

Luckily, TARMLS & ARMLS have a "data share" agreement that allows agents to see info on properties belonging to the other MLS (without agreement of compensation).  When looking on behalf of my clients, I use both systems in order to ensure that they can have all of the choices in Tucson real estate available to them.  When I can find price anomalies similar to the ones in Red Rock, my buyers are happy to save the money.

I know that HUD is trying to be as fair as possible - and applaud that desire.  Unfortunately, an unintended consequence is that they are driving down prices because the asset managers don't understand what region actually serves the market their properties may be in.

There's enough factors contributing to price declines in outlying regions...it is Unfair to have a simple policy accidentally cause more damage to the market.

The Real Estate Hall of Shame - not sure if anyone has built one yet, but I found a property today that could qualify as a good place to house the "How Not To Use Equity In Your Home" exhibit.  I think it used to be Homer Simpson's place.  He lost it to foreclosure.

Lets take a peek behind the scenes and see how this property might qualify for Poster Child status on the Real Estate Hall of Shame:

Lets see...Homer bought it in 2001 for a little under $300,000. Bear Stearns got it for $465k last fall.  Don't see any problems so far - probably a typical foreclosure on a note gone bad, purchased by the investment bank for pennies on the dollar.

This doesn't look so bad - what qualifies it for the Hall of Shame?  Lets take a look at the loan history:

Okay...lets see:  the buyer put down a little less than $15k - which works out to roughly 5% down back in 2001.  No problem yet...less than 2 years later, the owners refinanced for about $20,000 more.  Could have needed to pay somebody's tuition or something.

But wait - look at what happened in 2006!  (Gee, isn't that when the market was going gangbusters & everyone was going to get rich quick?)  After only 3 years, the owners refinanced AGAIN, but for 231% what it previously was worth!

Kind of strange how we dismiss claims of investments that promise amazing returns or "long-lost gold mines" as foolish or the stuff of legend, not reality...but not when it comes to our HOMES.  

"Lets get all of the equity out of our home, we're GETTING RICH QUICK," Homer Simpson says to Marge, "they might change their minds!"

But WAIT...another year passes and lo & behold...the value has gone up ANOTHER 25%! 

"We sure could use another $160,000 - now I can get that boat I always wanted & Marge can have that fur coat to wear when the temperature drops below 80 degrees...and I can show up to my high-school reunion in a shiny new Benz with spinners on the wheels!" -OR- "This real estate thing is a SURE-THING! It will NEVER GO DOWN...lets buy 3 or 4 other homes to MAKE MORE MONEY ON...we'll be ON EASY STREET!"

Homer refinances again in 2007, again pulling out all of the paper "equity" in the home - probably with an interest-only loan that adjusts after 3 years (which was the only way they could afford the payments on their $800,000 home that only cost $280,000 such a short time ago.

For some crazy reason, the lenders want Homer to pay the money back, and the home isn't magically going up in value anymore.  The payments now start to include principal AND interest.  Can't refinance again because the property isn't worth what it used to be.  Time to sell the home!

But the market is going d-o-w-n.  It doesn't sell at the price Homer & Marge need to get out of their debt.  It forecloses.  Homer isn't rich anymore and Marge has to sell her huge hair to rent an apartment.  Easy Street has potholes that could swallow an ark because the City was counting on the revenue from all of these wonderful property taxes to fill the coffers that it depleted on consultants and studies to tell them how to spend all of that money that should be coming in.

It wasn't just Homer - Moe did the same thing with his bar.  Marge's sister Patty bought 3 duplexes and a new 3500 square foot home because she was jealous.  Otto the school bus driver got a loan to buy 20 acres with a bitchin' manufactured on it so he could turn his stereo up as loud as he wanted.  Ned Flanders put Todd & Rod's names on loan applications and is now being investigated for mortgage fraud.

This didn't just happen in Springfield, or Tucson.  It happened everywhere that values on paper rose extremely quickly.  Apu still has the home he bought in 2002, and is easily making the payments.  He just bought 3 more Quickee Marts at bargain prices, and is thinking of getting a bigger home since prices and interest rates are super-low.  Principal Skinner & Groundskeeper Willie have been buying foreclosures, fixing them up and making a modest profit renting them out (which proves even a numbskull like Skinner can make smart decision if he doesn't get greedy).

Springfield is slowly coming back to normal (as is Tucson).  Some people are at different addresses than before, some the same, but a sobering reality has set in & a lesson learned:  "If it seems too good to be true, it probably is."

Did Homer learn anything?  Probably not.  He's trying to get all of his friends and family to come to a party to celebrate becoming an owner of a business that will soon make him money while he sleeps.  He's changing his name to Homer MLM Simpson to show his dedication & commitment in front of his "Double-Platinum Diamond Distributor/Coach.

The property?  Oh yeah...its still in good shape, in fact, it really is a good deal.  Now.  It can be yours for a little over $400,000.  Needs a little work, but not too much.  If you were smart with your money and still have some, give me a call.  I don't have any get-rich quick steals to show you, but I do know how to spot a solid investment in real estate.

Buyers often ask me "Can I put in a really low offer on this house?"  The short, simple answer to that is that anyone can offer whatever they wish on a property.  What really matters is if the offer will be looked at...and even considered.  A few times I've had clients who really, really liked a particular home, but ended up heartbroken because, in their attempt to "get a steal" because "it's a buyer's market," they either poisoned the seller against them or wasted time in a competitive foreclosure market by offering w-a-a-y below asking price.

Lets take a look at a typical scenario:

Buyer A is approved for a loan that will allow them to buy a home priced up to $200,000.  The question comes up about the possibility of offering say $200,000 on a property priced at $225,000 (which is a 12.5% discount).

There's absolutely nothing wrong with offering that, if comparable properties in the area are going for the lower price.

In reality, chances are, that offer won't even get a response. Generally speaking in the Tucson market, prices being asked nowadays are fairly close to what the market is bringing. If the seller is asking more than what the market is showing, you can just about guarantee that asking for a discount like this is going to be met with rejection instead of a counter-offer back. If it is a bank-owned house, you don't have to deal with the "human factor" i.e. "ego" like you would with one that is owned by a human being - there's nobody that would take personal offense or get cranky about a "lowball" offer - but they have their bottom line too, and a rejection is a rejection.

In the Tucson real estate market of today, many bank-owned homes (aka REO, foreclosure) are underpriced and seeing multiple offers in the first week or two.  Taking the time to submit a lowball offer and wait for a response can often be an exercise in futility - with a more realistic offer (many times OVER the asking price, but within comparables for the area) snapping it up before another offer can be made.

Most often, a home priced above market IS owned by a real-live person who is still attached to their property emotionally, and either can't or won't face the reality of the marketplace. Many times, the home will have been sitting on the market quite a while (DOM or, Days On Market), and will probably remain there for quite a while until the seller either takes it off of the market or comes to grips with it & eventually lowers the price.

If you see a home that is priced at $225,000 and want to offer $200,000 on it - I have no problem putting together the offer...just realize that the likelihood of positive results are close to nil in today's market. We could get lucky, just don't count on it!

Something else to factor into an offer is whether you want the seller to help pay your "closing costs" which generally run about 3% of the purchase price ($6000 on a $200,000 home). Typically, sellers in today's market are willing to help out that way, but not with a large discount on the asking price included...it is like asking them for 2 discounts at the same time - similar to showing up at a resort offering "Locals Only Summer Rates" and wanting a AAA discount on top of it. You might get one, but not both.

I also work with investors who are market-savvy, looking at capitalization rates, market saturation ratios, historic vacancy rates & projected growth patterns...the principles work the same way:  If the property works for you, and you want it, messing around may cost you a good property.

Smart investors know where the market is & are willing to pay the price because it is right.  Amateurs, blowhards & wannabes "paper the town" with offers looking for "the steal of the decade" while others make money.

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The TucsonKent Group proudly welcomes Emmary Nicholson, aka "The Gadsden Girl" to our team!  She brings us a broad scope of skills (her Facebook & Twitter networks are of an amazing caliber), a great "can-do" attitude and fresh perspective as a new Tucson resident.  Em is licensed in both Arizona & New Mexico, and is a wealth of knowledge about military relocation.

A native of the Desert Southwest, Emmary was born & raised in El Paso, Texas, living in Las Cruces, New Mexico, White Sands, New Mexico, the Washington D.C. area and back to Las Cruces before finally moving to Tucson this year.  Having been an Army wife for 13 years, Nicholson is well-versed in the challenges & pathways facing military families relocating to new surroundings.

With 20 years of broadcasting experience - as on-air talent, program director & instructor (Connecticut School of Broadcasting), combined with success in marketing for several restaurants on Facebook & Twitter, the TucsonKent Group looks forward to her blend of time-honored and innovative approach to marketing for her clients in social media & other avenues.  One of her passions in community involvement, and she wasted no time after her move - becoming involved with the Tucson Literacy Coalition within her first week!

Emmary's background, love of Southwest History and its people make her the true "Gadsden Girl" (Southern Arizona & New Mexico - Tucson & Las Cruces were purchased from Mexico in the Gadsden Purchase of 1853).  Please join us in our excitement and welcome Emmary to our team!

Yep - the announcement is true:  I'm opening an office right in the heart of Downtown Tucson.  Tierra Downtown is a going to be a branch office of Tierra Antigua Realty...and the TucsonKent Group is one of the founding partners!

We're located in the historic Pioneer Hotel Building (could be haunted!), on the top floor with views that can't be beat.  The best part of being located downtown is that we're right in the thick of the community that is revitalizing Downtown Tucson - Congress Street, Pennington Street, Broadway, Stone Avenue...the Modern Streetcar and much more.

We're having a Grand Opening Celebration on November 12 from 3PM to 6PM, with wine, women & song (at least the wine part is a go), munchies & a lot of fun.  If you're in Tucson that Friday afternoon - come on up & help us celebrate the beginning of what portends to be a very exciting beginning in Tucson history as Downtown continues to grow & come alive again.

Downtown Tucson has quite a few murals adding a little spice to the walls and construction sites in the area.  How often do you get to watch the artists at work?

Often it seems that these works spring up "overnight" or perhaps we get so used to seeing the same old monolithic walls on buildings or drab plywood "safety barriers" around construction sites that we don't notice the art until it stares us in the face!

Just the other day, I was fortunate enough to see local artists Rock Martinez & Ed Muren work on their temporary canvas in the heart of Downtown Tucson - at 50 E. Broadway Boulevard - as this building gets renovated.

If you haven't been to Downtown Tucson in the past year...or even in the last 6 months...you'll be amazed at the entergy, vitality & transformation that is happening.  The downtown area is coming alive with new investment and a sense of destiny in becoming a showcase of promise in The Old Pueblo.

Yet one of many reasons my partners & I have decided to locate our office in downtown...right in the thick of things!  Stay tuned for photos & updates on what is happening in the heart of Tucson.

Search Downtown Tucson Residential Real Estate

Downtown Tucson Commercial Properties

This photo is of Sombrero Peak, which is a landmark to help point out where Continental Ranch is in Tucson.  It is on the northern end of the Tucson Mountains - and stands out visible for miles and miles.  If anyone needs to know where the community of Continental Ranch is, you can simply point out Sombrero Peak & say,

"Head that way, you can't miss it!"

I was driving to an appointment late in the afternoon when I saw this combination of clouds & light with Sombrero Peak silhouetted beneath them.  Seeing the rays of sunshine defined like this doesn't happen very often, so I knew I just had to try to capture this scene!

Continental Ranch is a large, master-planned community west of I-10 in the northwest part of the Tucson Metro.  Begun in the early 1990s, the community is still growing as it matures - new subdivisions are still being built, new commercial space is supplementing that which has been serving the area for the past 2 decades and more.

Late this fall, the Twin Peaks Interchange will add direct freeway access to the northern end of the community, which will ease traffic on Silverbell and make things much easier for those living on the northern end!

If you live in the Starr Pass Residences of Tucson, you know one of the perks of owning a home here is a great setting for spectacular sunsets.  Located on the west side of the metro, cradled by hills studded with saguaros, the JW Marriott Starr Pass Resort anchors this community of single family homes, condos and casitas.

Rated as one of the world's best spa resorts by the Conde Nast Traveler, Fodor's & other noteworthy guides, the Starr Pass Resort also serves as an intersting backdrop for sunsets - especially on a stormy night like this one.

Owning a home in the Starr Pass Residences isn't nearly as expensive as one would think - even one of the golf course casitas.  Don't take my word for it though, check out the current properties on the market below.  Lets play a round at the Jack Nicklaus Signature course, relax with a massage at the Hashani Spa then enjoy a meal at one of the 5 restaurants while we celebrate your new home with luxury at your doorstep - without paying a mint for it.

There is so much focus on how foreclosure affects people and communities, we often forget those who can't speak for themselves - our pets.

Thanks to Emmary Nicholson in Las Cruces, New Mexico for finding a good resource to help with our *other loved ones* who are just as important in our lives.

Hopefully these are the first photos posted from RainCamp Prescott - Mike Jones & I met up about 4 AM today for the easy drive up to northern Arizona together.

As we pulled into Prescott, we spied quite a few intriguing photo opportunities - and took a short detour to take advantage of them.  I'll let Mike share the best shots - since he had the luxury of the passenger seat!

The location for RainCamp is the Prescott Resort & Conference Center situated on a ridge high up above the Prescott Valley:

Prescott is known for its wide-open spaces and spectacular views.

Registration isn't even finished yet & look at all the people attending!

Why attend conferences like this?  Learning new techniques and best practices to better help our business and our clients in more efficient ways.

Another benefit is connecting in human-to-human fashion with friends we've gotten to know online and meeting new friends & business associates to develop in the future.

RainCamp is more than just about technology - it is about the people behind it and the people we engage by using it...in the neverending quest to provide better service to the consumer in a manner that is best understood clearly.